Cambodia Power Report Q3 2011

[Companiesandmarkets.com]

Market: Energy and Utilities
Published Date: 01 Jul 2011
Report Type: Market Report
Country: Cambodia
Number of Pages: 38

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Cambodia Power Report Q3 2011

The new Cambodia Power Report forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from 1.4TWh in 2010 to 3.4TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 9.4% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply shortfall rising from the estimated 0.1TWh level seen in 2010 to 0.22TWh by 2020, assuming 9.4% average annual growth in power generation during the period.

Cambodian power generation in 2010 is put at 1.3TWh, having risen around 5.0% from the 2009 level. We are forecasting an average 8.9% annual increase to 2.0TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by an average 8.9% per annum during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to accelerate later in the decade.

The use of domestic natural gas supply in power generation is dependent on successful development of gas resources currently under investigation, with Chevron's Block A prospects capable of supplying gas from 2013. Oil will remain a significant part of the Cambodian power generation mix, although its market share should eventually fall thanks to fuel substitution. It currently accounts for around 95.7% of total generation, rising to a possible 96.3% by 2015, in spite of greater hydro, coal and gas expansion.

Cambodia is looking into nuclear power as a future energy source to meet rising domestic demand, although construction of a plant is still years away, a government official said in August 2010.

Cambodian scientists have begun to study nuclear technology in a bid to keep pace with South East Asian neighbours planning to build plants in the next few years, said Ith Praing, Secretary of State at the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy.

Cambodia is 16th and last, behind even Taiwan, in our updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption, offset by low scores in several other categories. It has the long-term potential to overtake Taiwan and Singapore further above it.

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